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Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress

  • Miroslav Misina

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Greg Tkacz

    (Bank of Canada)

Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Borio and Lowe (2002) answer this question in the affirmative for a sample of thirty-four countries, but the question is surprisingly difficult to answer for individual developed countries that have faced very few, if any, financial crises in the past. To circumvent this problem, we focus on financial stress and ask whether credit and asset price movements can help predict it. To measure financial stress, we use the financial stress index (FSI) developed by Illing and Liu (2006). Other innovations include the estimation and forecasting using both linear and endogenous threshold models, and a wide range of asset prices (stock and housing prices, for example). The exercise is mainly performed for Canada, but in our robustness checks we also consider data for Japan and the United States. Our sample also includes the financial crisis of 2007-08.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 95-122

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:4:a:5
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  1. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  7. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  8. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Miroslav Misina & David Tessier, 2008. "Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing," Staff Working Papers 08-30, Bank of Canada.
  10. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  11. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  12. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
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