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Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress

Author

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  • Miroslav Misina

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Greg Tkacz

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Borio and Lowe (2002) answer this question in the affirmative for a sample of thirty-four countries, but the question is surprisingly difficult to answer for individual developed countries that have faced very few, if any, financial crises in the past. To circumvent this problem, we focus on financial stress and ask whether credit and asset price movements can help predict it. To measure financial stress, we use the financial stress index (FSI) developed by Illing and Liu (2006). Other innovations include the estimation and forecasting using both linear and endogenous threshold models, and a wide range of asset prices (stock and housing prices, for example). The exercise is mainly performed for Canada, but in our robustness checks we also consider data for Japan and the United States. Our sample also includes the financial crisis of 2007-08.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Misina & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 95-122, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:4:a:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. R. P. Agenor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 198-243, September.
    3. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    4. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    5. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    6. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2021. "Forecasting financial vulnerability in the USA: A factor model approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 439-457, April.
    7. Maciej Krzak & Grzegorz Poniatowski & Katarzyna Wasik, 2014. "Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries," CASE Network Reports 0117, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Systemic early warning systems for EU15 based on the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 202, Bank of Greece.
    9. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Eliana Lauretta & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2020. "Systemic financial risk indicators and securitised assets: an agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 9-47, January.
    10. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    11. Gunther Tichy, 2020. "Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 193-206, March.
    12. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2014. "International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.
    13. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Christensen, Ian & Li, Fuchun, 2014. "Predicting financial stress events: A signal extraction approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 54-65.
    15. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    16. Ian Christensen & Fuchun Li, 2013. "A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events," Staff Working Papers 13-13, Bank of Canada.
    17. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager & Etti Baranoff, 2017. "A ternary-state early warning system for the European Union," Working Papers 222, Bank of Greece.
    18. Robert Vermeulen & Marco Hoeberichts & Bořek Vašíček & Diana Žigraiová & Kateřina Šmídková & Jakob Haan, 2015. "Financial Stress Indices and Financial Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 383-406, July.
    19. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung & Conseil d'Analyse Économique, 2010. "Monitoring economic performance, quality of life and sustainability. Joint report as requested by the Franco-German Ministerial Council," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75366, March.
    20. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager, 2019. "Systemic early warning systems for EU14 based on the 2008 crisis: proposed estimation and model assessment for classification forecasting," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 226-244, September.
    21. Nadežda Sinenko & Deniss Titarenko & Mikus Arinš, 2013. "The Latvian financial stress index as an important element of the financial system stability monitoring framework," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 85-110, December.
    22. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: Evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    23. Fuchun Li & Hongyu Xiao, 2016. "Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach," Staff Working Papers 16-21, Bank of Canada.
    24. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    25. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.

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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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