Causality between banking and currency fragilities: A dynamic panel model
A panel dynamic model both with and without a threshold is specified to reexamine the lead-lag relationship between banking and currency fragilities. We employ banking sector fragility (BSF) and exchange market pressure (EMP) as the proxies for banking and currency fragilities, respectively, where BSF is made up of real deposits, banks' real claims on the domestic private sector and the real foreign liabilities of banks, and EMP uses the weighted average of the exchange rate changes and foreign reserves. Among the banking sector fragilities, we consider three different proxies, namely, BSF1, BSF2 and BSF3, depending on the components used. Our 51 sample countries include 21 industrial and 30 developing countries. When the whole panel dynamic model is used, bilateral causality is found between the two fragilities using all sample countries. When using only industrial country data, the bilateral causation is found only between EMP and BSF2, but no relationship is found between BSF3 and EMP, or between BSF2* and EMP. When developing countries are employed, stronger bilateral causality is found between banking and currency fragilities. When the panel threshold dynamic model is used, the results overwhelmingly suggest that bilateral causality exists.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005.
"How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-52, August.
- Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Neuberger, . "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002.
"Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,
in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084
Central Bank of Chile.
- Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August.
- Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999. "Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2059, The World Bank.
- Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
- Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997.
"Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
- G.G. Kaufman, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk: A Taxonomy and Review," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 48, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's example of threshold break in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00088, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "PANELTHRESH: RATS procedure to analyze up to two threshold breaks in a fixed effects panel model," Statistical Software Components RTS00152, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Miller, Victoria, 1996. "Speculative currency attacks with endogenously induced commercial bank crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 383-403, June.
- Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998.
"Financial liberalization and financial fragility,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1917, The World Bank.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven B. Kamin & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "The contributions of domestic and external factors to Latin American devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 645, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:85-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.