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Measuring financial stress in Turkey

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  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail
  • Dibooglu, Sel
  • Kenc, Turalay

Abstract

This study examines episodes of financial stress and develops a financial stress index for the Turkish economy for the 1997–2010 period. We consider various variables that summarize different aspects of financial conditions in the economy to gauge financial stress. We construct the index and show that financial stress affects economic activity significantly. Specifically, the index is a leading indicator of economic activity in Turkey. We then discuss how information provided by the financial stress index can be used to fine tune macroeconomic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2013. "Measuring financial stress in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 370-383.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:2:p:370-383
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Grzegorz Poniatowski, 2014. "Common Currency and Determinants of Government Bond Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 6(2), pages 70-87, June.
    4. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyun Hak Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Stress Indices in Korea: A Factor Model Approach," Working Papers 2015-30, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    6. Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay & Ozturk, Huseyin, 2019. "Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 151-172.
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    8. Jauhari Dahalan & Hussin Bin Abdullah & Mohammed Umar, 2016. "Measuring Financial Stress Index for Malaysian Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 942-947.
    9. Iglesias, Emma M., 2015. "Value at Risk of the main stock market indexes in the European Union (2000–2012)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13.
    10. Mirajul Haq & Karim Khan & Ayesha Parveen, 2014. "The Growth and Employment Impacts of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis on Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 129-154, July-Dec.
    11. Maciej Krzak & Grzegorz Poniatowski & Katarzyna Wasik, 2014. "Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries," CASE Network Reports 0117, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    12. Hayet Abbad & Mohamed Achouche & Yamina Tadjeddine, 2015. "Evaluation du système financier Algérien : Construction d’un indice agrégé de stabilité bancaire," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-25, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    14. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 278-288.
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    16. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Market Vulnerability in the U.S.: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    17. José Pedro Braga & Inês Pereira & Teresa Balcão Reis, 2014. "Composite Indicator of Financial Stress for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. repec:fis:journl:180302 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Financial pressure; Economic indicators; Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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