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Mapping the state of financial stability

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  • Sarlin, Peter
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to introduce modern mapping techniques to the finance community. Mapping techniques provide means for representing high-dimensional data on low-dimensional displays. This paper lays out a methodology called the Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) based upon data and dimensionality reduction that can be used for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing potential sources of systemic risks. Besides of its visualization capabilities, the SOFSM can be used as an early-warning model that can be calibrated according to policymakers’ preferences between missing systemic financial crises and issuing false alarms. An application of the SOFSM to the recent global financial crisis shows that it performs on par with a statistical benchmark model and correctly calls the crises that started in 2007 in the United States and the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:46-76 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2013.05.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria, 2017. "“What really matters is the economic performance: Positioning tourist destinations by means of perceptual maps," IREA Working Papers 201713, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2017.
    2. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
    3. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Systemic early warning systems for EU15 based on the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 202, Bank of Greece.
    4. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    5. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2014. "Ending over-lending : Assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Research Discussion Papers 11/2014, Bank of Finland.
    6. Mark D. Flood & Victoria L. Lemieux & Margaret Varga & B.L. William Wong, 2014. "The Application of Visual Analytics to Financial Stability Monitoring," Working Papers 14-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, revised 07 Oct 2014.
    7. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager & Etti Baranoff, 2017. "A ternary-state early warning system for the European Union," Working Papers 222, Bank of Greece.
    8. Ons Jedidi & Jean Sébastien Pentecote, 2015. "Robust Signals for Banking Crises," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1617-1629.
    9. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    10. Kauko, Karlo, 2012. "External deficits and non-performing loans in the recent financial crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 196-199.
    11. Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
    12. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents' expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," IREA Working Papers 201511, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    13. Flood, Mark D. & Lemieux, Victoria L. & Varga, Margaret & William Wong, B.L., 2016. "The application of visual analytics to financial stability monitoring," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 180-197.
    14. Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61217, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Lang, Michael, 2013. "The early warnings of balance-of-payments problems: Kaminsky and Reinhart revisited," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 205, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    16. Ons Jedidi & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2015. "Prédire les crises bancaires : un système d’alerte robuste," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 189-225.
    17. Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Macroprudential oversight, risk communication and visualization," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 160-179.
    18. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    19. Peltonen, Tuomas & Sarlin, Peter & Rancan, Michela, 2015. "Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises," Working Paper Series 1866, European Central Bank.
    20. Borgy, Vladimir & Clerc, Laurent & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2014. "Measuring aggregate risk: Can we robustly identify asset-price boom–bust cycles?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 132-150.
    21. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.
    22. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    23. Office of Financial Research (ed.), 2013. "Office of Financial Research 2013 Annual Report," Reports, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 13-2.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mapping techniques; Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM); Systemic financial crisis; Systemic risk; Visualization; Prediction;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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