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The Market's View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons

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  • Hans Byström

Abstract

Considering the increasingly international banks of today, the health of a country's banking sector is crucial not only to the country's growth and prosperity but also to the rest of the international financial community. Early warning signals of a banking sector in trouble or a pending banking crisis would therefore be of great value to both banks, investors and banking regulators/supervisors world wide. Different warning signals exist and in this paper we investigate how the stock market can provide a market-based indicator of banking sector health. Hall and Miles (1990) suggests an approach of estimating default probabilities of individual banks using only their stock market valuations and volatilities. In this paper we apply an aggregated version of their approach to banking sectors around the world in both developed and emerging economies and study the market's assessment of the probability of systemic banking crises in these countries over the last decade, including the Asian Crisis 1997-98. In addition, we investigate whether there is a relationship between the probability of banking sector failure and institutional/structural features of the actual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of law and order in a country is found to be significantly negatively related to the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit deposit insurance during periods of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Byström, 2003. "The Market's View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons," Research Paper Series 93, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:93
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    File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp93.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clare, Andrew & Priestley, Richard, 2002. "Calculating the probability of failure of the Norwegian banking sector," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-40, February.
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    5. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems - cross-country comparisons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2143, The World Bank.
    6. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
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    8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    9. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Apanard P. Prabha & Clas Wihlborg & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Market Discipline for Financial Institutions and Markets for Information," Chapters, in: James R. Barth & Chen Lin & Clas Wihlborg (ed.), Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2008. "The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in Southeast Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(6), pages 1215-1242.
    3. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
    4. Jutasompakorn, Pearpilai & Brooks, Robert & Brown, Christine & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2014. "Banking crises: Identifying dates and determinants," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 150-166.
    5. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
    6. Angkinand, Apanard P., 2009. "Banking regulation and the output cost of banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 240-257, April.
    7. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011. "Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
    8. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
    9. Bystrom, Hans & Worasinchai, Lugkana & Chongsithipol, Srisuda, 2005. "Default risk, systematic risk and Thai firms before, during and after the Asian crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110, March.
    10. Fernandez, Ana I. & Gonzalez, Francisco, 2005. "How accounting and auditing systems can counteract risk-shifting of safety-nets in banking: Some international evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 466-500, October.
    11. Pasali, Selahattin Selsah, 2013. "Where is the cheese ? synthesizing a giant literature on causes and consequences of financial sector development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6655, The World Bank.
    12. Hans Degryse & Sanja Jakovljević & Steven Ongena, 2015. "A Review of Empirical Research on the Design and Impact of Regulation in the Banking Sector," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 423-443, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; banking crisis; default probability; market discipline;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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