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The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in South East Asia

Author

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  • Carlos Bautista

    (College of Business Administration - UP System - University of the Philippines)

  • Philippe Rous

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Amine Tarazi

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of both domestic and cross border systemic risk for 8 countries in Southeast Asia (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). We use weekly data on individual bank stock prices from 2000 to 2005 to construct bank contagion measures based on the exponential weighted average correlations of the residuals of the market model. Our results show that average pair-wise correlations significantly differ among countries and that the probability that a specific shock extends to other banks is better predicted by asset risk indicators and market based risk measures, such as systematic risk, for cross country contagion. In contrast, for domestic contagion, liquidity risk indicators and bank opaqueness proxies perform better. Our findings suggest that whereas illiquidity, but not insolvency, is a major concern at the domestic level the opposite result holds for cross country contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2007. "The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in South East Asia," Working Papers hal-00918555, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00918555
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-00918555
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    Cited by:

    1. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Sitorus, Djauhari & Tarazi, Amine, 2017. "Abnormal loan growth, credit information sharing and systemic risk in Asian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1208-1218.
    2. Elahi, M.A., 2011. "Essays on financial fragility," Other publications TiSEM 882f55bb-10dc-4e49-95ef-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross‐Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 209-240, June.
    4. Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2009. "The determinants of bank stock return's co-movements in East Asia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1596-1601.
    5. Hans Degryse & Muhammad Ather Elahi & Maria Fabiana Penas, 2010. "Cross‐Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 209-240, June.

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