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The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in South East Asia

  • Carlos Bautista


    (College of Business Administration - University of the Philippines)

  • Philippe Rous


    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société)

  • Amine Tarazi


    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - UNILIM - Université de Limoges - IR SHS UNILIM - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société)

This paper addresses the issue of both domestic and cross border systemic risk for 8 countries in Southeast Asia (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). We use weekly data on individual bank stock prices from 2000 to 2005 to construct bank contagion measures based on the exponential weighted average correlations of the residuals of the market model. Our results show that average pair-wise correlations significantly differ among countries and that the probability that a specific shock extends to other banks is better predicted by asset risk indicators and market based risk measures, such as systematic risk, for cross country contagion. In contrast, for domestic contagion, liquidity risk indicators and bank opaqueness proxies perform better. Our findings suggest that whereas illiquidity, but not insolvency, is a major concern at the domestic level the opposite result holds for cross country contagion.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00918555.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00918555
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  1. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2003. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Working Paper Series 0297, European Central Bank.
  2. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  4. Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2001. "The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 409, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  6. De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
  7. Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
  8. Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2001. "Crises and contagion: the role of the banking system," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 241-260 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Byström, Hans, 2003. "The Market’s View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons," Working Papers 2003:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  10. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
  11. Gianni De Nicoló & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
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