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External deficits and non-performing loans in the recent financial crisis

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  • Kauko, Karlo

Abstract

This paper analyses the deterioration of bank credit quality during the recent financial crisis in a cross-national sample. Rapid credit growth in 2000–2005 predicted the relative amount of non-performing loans only if it was combined with a current account deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kauko, Karlo, 2012. "External deficits and non-performing loans in the recent financial crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 196-199.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:196-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
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    3. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
    4. Sarlin, Peter & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Mapping the state of financial stability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 46-76.
    5. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    6. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    8. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2011. "What is really common in the run-up to banking crises?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 211-214.
    9. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "Was the subprime crisis unique? An analysis of the factors that help predict banking crises in OECD countries," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 363, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    10. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    2. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:125-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    5. Karlo Kauko, 2014. "Do Bailouts Cause Moral Hazards or Franchise Value in Banking?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 82-92, February.
    6. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Viren, Matti, 2015. "Why is credit-to-GDP a good measure for setting countercyclical capital buffers?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 117-126.
    7. Dimitrios, Anastasiou & Helen, Louri & Mike, Tsionas, 2016. "Determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from Euro-area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 116-119.
    8. Michele Fabrizi & Elisabetta Ipino & Michel Magnan & Antonio Parbonetti, 2016. "Real Regulatory Capital Management and Dividend Payout: Evidence from Available-for-Sale Securities / Gestion du capital réglementaire et politique de dividende : Le cas des valeurs mobilières disponi," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-57, CIRANO.
    9. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Helen Louri & Mike G. Tsionas, 2016. "Non-performing loans in the euro area: are core-periphery banking markets fragmented?," Working Papers 219, Bank of Greece.
    10. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:242-248 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "The Interplay between Ex-post Credit Risk and the Cycles: Evidence from the Italian banks," MPRA Paper 79470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lainà, Patrizio & Nyholm, Juho & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Leading indicators of systemic banking crises: Finland in a panel of EU countries," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 18-35.
    13. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
    14. Jokivuolle, Esa & Pesola, Jarmo & Virén, Matti, 2014. "What drives loan losses in Europe?," Research Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland.
    15. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
    16. repec:lje:journl:v:22:y:2017:i:1:p:37-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-performing loans; Early warning signals; Financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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