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Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Iana Liadze

  • Ray Barrell

  • Professor E. Philip Davis

Abstract

Early warning systems (EWS) for banking crises generally omit bank capital, bank liquidity and property prices. Most work on EWS has been for global samples dominated by emerging market crises where time series data on bank capital adequacy and property prices are typically absent. We estimate logit crisis models for OECD countries, finding strong effects from capital adequacy and liquidity ratios as well as property prices, and can exclude traditional variables. Higher capital adequacy and liquidity ratios have a marked effect on the crisis probabilities, implying long run benefits to offset some of the costs that such regulations may impose.

Suggested Citation

  • Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 330, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:330
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