IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v31y2012i1p10-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Kamin, Steven B.
  • DeMarco, Laurie Pounder

Abstract

The global financial crisis clearly started with problems in the U.S. sub-prime sector and spread across the world from there. But was the direct exposure of foreigners to the U.S. financial system a key driver of the crisis, or did other factors account for its rapid contagion across the world? To answer this question, we assessed whether countries that held large amounts of U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and were highly dependent on dollar funding experienced a greater degree of financial distress during the crisis. We found little evidence of such direct spillovers from the United States to abroad. Although CDS spreads generally rose higher and bank stocks generally fell lower in countries with more exposure to U.S. MBS and greater dollar funding needs, these correlations were not robust, and they fail to explain the lion’s share of the deterioration in asset prices that took place during the crisis. Accordingly, less tangible channels of contagion may have played a more important role in the global spread of the crisis: a generalized run on global financial institutions, given the opacity of their balance sheets; excessive dependence on short-term funding; vicious cycles of mark-to-market losses driving fire sales of MBS; the realization that financial firms around the world were pursuing similar (flawed) business models; and global swings in risk aversion. The U.S. sub-prime crisis, rather than being a fundamental driver of the global crisis, may have been merely a trigger for a global bank run and for disillusionment with a risky business model that already had spread around the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamin, Steven B. & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder, 2012. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 10-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:1:p:10-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560611001562
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Gorton, 2008. "The Panic of 2007," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2372, Yale School of Management.
    2. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder Demarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? The Case of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper During the Financial Crisis of 2007-09," NBER Working Papers 16079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2013. "Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2549-2587, December.
    6. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "Global monitoring with the BIS international banking statistics," CGFS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 176-204 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2004. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 16(2-3), pages 136-146.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
    10. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    11. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediary leverage and value at risk," Staff Reports 338, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Moser, Thomas, 2003. "What Is International Financial Contagion?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 157-178, Summer.
    13. Carol C. Bertaut & Laurie Pounder Demarco, 2009. "The financial crisis and U.S. cross-border financial flows," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Nov.
    14. Daniel O. Beltran & Laurie Pounder Demarco & Charles P. Thomas, 2008. "Foreign exposure to asset-backed securities of U.S. origin," International Finance Discussion Papers 939, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Viral V Acharya & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? Asset-Backed Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 37-73, August.
    16. Carol C. Bertaut & William L. Griever & Ralph W. Tryon, 2006. "Understanding U.S. cross-border securities data," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue May, pages 59-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "Sudden spikes in global risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 511-521.
    2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2016. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 177-198, October.
    4. Eichacker, Nina, 2015. "Financial liberalization and the onset of financial crisis in Western European states between 1983 and 2011: An econometric investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 323-343.
    5. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    6. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    7. Karlo Kauko, 2014. "Do Bailouts Cause Moral Hazards or Franchise Value in Banking?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 82-92, February.
    8. John McCollough & Komal Karani, 2014. "The Media's Role in Influencing Perceptions of Housing Values and the Resulting Impact on the Macroeconomy," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 68-77, February.
    9. Reddy, Kotapati Srinivasa & Nangia, Vinay Kumar & Agrawal, Rajat, 2014. "The 2007-2008 global financial crisis, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions: A 26-nation exploratory study," MPRA Paper 60148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    11. Reddy, Kotapati Srinivasa, 2015. "The impact of the global financial crisis on border-crossing mergers and acquisitions: A continental/industry analysis," MPRA Paper 63563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    12. Can Sever, 2016. "Contagion: Recent Models in International Finance Literature," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(2), pages 59-66, June.
    13. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:42-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:88-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marlène Isoré, 2011. "International Propagation of Financial Shocks in a Search and Matching Environment," FIW Working Paper series 068, FIW.
    16. Yan, Cheng & Phylaktis, Kate & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2016. "On cross-border bank credit and the U.S. financial crisis transmission to equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 108-134.
    17. Narendar Rao & K. Reddy, 2015. "The impact of the global financial crisis on cross-border mergers and acquisitions: a continental and industry analysis," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 309-341, December.
    18. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Lothian, James R., 2012. "International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-9.
    19. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2016. "Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-52.
    20. Kaoru Hosono & Miho Takizawa & Kotaro Tsuru, 2016. "International Transmission of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 295-328, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Transmission; Mortgage-backed securities;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:1:p:10-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.