IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis

  • Bertaut, Carol
  • DeMarco, Laurie Pounder
  • Kamin, Steven
  • Tryon, Ralph
Registered author(s):

    Relative to the “global savings glut” (GSG) hypothesis, we present a more complete picture of how capital flows contributed to the financial crisis, drawing attention to the sizable inflows from European investors into U.S. private-label asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities and other structured investment products. The GSG hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined with both innovations and deficiencies of the U.S. credit market, are believed to have contributed to the U.S. housing bubble and to the buildup in financial vulnerabilities that led to the financial crisis. Because the GSG countries for the most part restricted their U.S. purchases to Treasuries and Agency debt, their provision of savings to ultimately risky subprime mortgage borrowers was necessarily indirect, pushing down yields on safe assets and increasing the appetite for alternative investments on the part of other investors. Foreign acquisitions of private-label ABS, primarily by Europeans, provided credit more directly and, by adding to domestic demand for these securities, contributed to the decline in their spreads over Treasury yields. Through a combination of empirical estimation and model simulation, we verify that both GSG inflows into Treasuries and Agencies, as well as European acquisitions of ABS, played a role in contributing to downward pressures on U.S. interest rates.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199612000608
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

    Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 219-234

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:2:p:219-234
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Viral V Acharya & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? Asset-Backed Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 37-73, August.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder Demarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Caballero, Ricardo & Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 7064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Mendoza, Enrique G & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2009. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    9. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2010. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Staff Reports 441, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "The "Other" Imbalance and the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
    13. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," NBER Working Papers 14739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jane K. Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane M. Sherlund & Jae W. Sim & Skander J. van den Heuvel, 2009. "Monetary policy and the housing bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Richard H. Clarida, 2005. "Japan, China, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 25(1), Winter.
    17. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    18. anonymous, 2005. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Spr, pages 117-142.
    19. Jiandong Ju & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Joshua Coval & Jakub Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "The Economics of Structured Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 3-25, Winter.
    21. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    22. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2009:x:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Carol C. Bertaut & Laurie Pounder Demarco & Steven B. Kamin & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Richard N. Cooper, 2005. "Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View," Policy Briefs PB05-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    25. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes," CEPR Discussion Papers 7606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Naohiko Baba & Robert N McCauley & Srichander Ramaswamy, 2009. "US dollar money market funds and non-US banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    27. Viral V. Acharya & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? The Case of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper During the Financial Crisis of 2007-09," NBER Working Papers 16079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
    29. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:i:sep11 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Adam B. Ashcraft & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & James Vickery, 2010. "MBS ratings and the mortgage credit boom," Staff Reports 449, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    33. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    34. Sa, Filipa & Towbin, Pascal & wieladek, tomasz, 2011. "Low interest rates and housing booms: the role of capital inflows, monetary policy and financial innovation," Bank of England working papers 411, Bank of England.
    35. Claudio BORIO & Piti DISYATAT, 2010. "Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 198-216, December.
    36. Carol Bertaut & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Steven B. Kamin & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Daniel O. Beltran & Laurie Pounder Demarco & Charles P. Thomas, 2008. "Foreign exposure to asset-backed securities of U.S. origin," International Finance Discussion Papers 939, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. anonymous, 2005. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Sum, pages 319-343.
    39. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The rise in mortgage defaults," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Kashyap, Anil K. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2008. "Rethinking capital regulation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 431-471.
    41. Steven Kates (ed.), 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14454.
    42. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, 09.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:2:p:219-234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.