MBS ratings and the mortgage credit boom
We study credit ratings on subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) deals issued between 2001 and 2007, the period leading up to the subprime crisis. The fraction of highly rated securities in each deal is decreasing in mortgage credit risk (measured either ex ante or ex post), suggesting that ratings contain useful information for investors. However, we also find evidence of significant time variation in risk-adjusted credit ratings, including a progressive decline in standards around the MBS market peak between the start of 2005 and mid-2007. Conditional on initial ratings, we observe underperformance (high mortgage defaults and losses and large rating downgrades) among deals with observably higher risk mortgages based on a simple ex ante model and deals with a high fraction of opaque low-documentation loans. These findings hold over the entire sample period, not just for deal cohorts most affected by the crisis.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045-0001|
Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/staff_rp/ Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
- Haughwout, Andrew & Peach, Richard & Tracy, Joseph, 2008.
"Juvenile delinquent mortgages: Bad credit or bad economy?,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 246-257, September.
- Andrew F. Haughwout & Richard Peach & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Juvenile delinquent mortgages: bad credit or bad economy?," Staff Reports 341, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, .
"The Information Value of Bond Ratings,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
13-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2008.
"Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation,"
08-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Skreta, Vasiliki & Veldkamp, Laura, 2009. "Ratings shopping and asset complexity: A theory of ratings inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 678-695, July.
- Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Coval & Jakub Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "The Economics of Structured Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 3-25, Winter.
- Efraim Benmelech & Jennifer Dlugosz, 2010.
"The Credit Rating Crisis,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 161-207
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nadauld, Taylor D. & Sherlund, Shane M., 2009.
"The Role of the Securitization Process in the Expansion of Subprime Credit,"
Working Paper Series
2009-9, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Taylor D. Nadauld & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The role of the securitization process in the expansion of subprime credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2010.
"Ratings Quality over the Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8156, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn & Anjolein Schmeits, 2006.
"Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 81-118.
- Boot, Arnoud W A & Milbourn, Todd, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 3331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Arnoud W. A. Boot & Todd T. Milbourn, 2002. "Credit Ratings as Coordination Mechanisms," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 457, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bo Becker & Todd Milbourn, 2008. "Reputation and competition: evidence from the credit rating industry," Harvard Business School Working Papers 09-051, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2010.
- Opp, Christian C. & Opp, Marcus M. & Harris, Milton, 2013. "Rating agencies in the face of regulation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 46-61.
- Antoine Faure-Grimaud & Eloïc Peyrache & Lucía Quesada, 2009.
"The ownership of ratings,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
RAND Corporation, vol. 40(2), pages 234-257.
- Beatriz Mariano, 2008.
"Do reputational concerns lead to reliable ratings?,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
24433, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Beatriz Mariano, 2008. "Do Reputational Concerns Lead to Reliable Ratings?," FMG Discussion Papers dp613, Financial Markets Group.
- Cantor, Richard, 2001. "Moody's investors service response to the consultative paper issued by the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision "A new capital adequacy framework"," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 171-185, January.
- Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2008. "Where's the smoking gun? a study of underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages," Working Papers 2008-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008.
"Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit,"
Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance,
now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
- Adam B. Ashcraft & Til Schuermann, 2008. "Understanding the securitization of subprime mortgage credit," Staff Reports 318, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Mathis, Jérôme & McAndrews, James & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2009. "Rating the raters: Are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 657-674, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:449. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.