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The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

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  • Catte, Pietro
  • Cova, Pietro
  • Pagano, Patrizio
  • Visco, Ignazio

Abstract

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:33:y:2011:i:6:p:787-803 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    2. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    3. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Tente, Natalia & von Westernhagen, Natalja & Slopek, Ulf, 2017. "M-PRESS-CreditRisk: A holistic micro- and macroprudential approach to capital requirements," Discussion Papers 15/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Philip Turner, 2013. "Caveat creditor," BIS Working Papers 419, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Seewon, 2013. "Transmission of the global financial crisis to Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 339-353.
    7. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2014. "Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1048-1065.
    8. Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Macroprudential tools, transmission and modelling," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 470, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    9. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2015. "Common macroeconomic shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 377-392.
    10. Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa & Turhan, M. İbrahim, 2015. "Global imbalances, current account rebalancing and exchange rate adjustments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-341.
    11. Bertocco Giancarlo, 2014. "Global Saving Glut and Housing Bubble: A Critical Analysis," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 195-218.
    12. Stefano Gurciullo, 2014. "Stess-testing the system: Financial shock contagion in the realm of uncertainty," Papers 1412.1679, arXiv.org.
    13. Carlos A. Carrasco & Felipe Serrano, 2014. "Global and European Imbalances:A critical review," Working papers wpaper42, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2014. "What do we know about the effects of macroprudential policy?," DNB Working Papers 440, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Central banking post-crisis: What compass for uncharted waters?," BIS Working Papers 353, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
    18. Pietro Catte & Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Ignazio Visco, 2011. "Macroeconomic Policies and the Roots of the Global Crisis," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    19. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2013. "Macroprudential, Microprudential and Monetary Policies: Policies, Complementarities and Trade-Offs," Chapters,in: Stability of the Financial System, chapter 22 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Seip, Knut L. & McNown, Robert, 2013. "Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 307-325.
    22. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; Financial crisis; Monetary policy; Macroprudential regulation; Structural reforms;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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