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Joseph Schumpeter Lecture The Great Moderation, The Great Panic, and The Great Contraction

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  • Charles Bean

Abstract

This lecture examines the causes of the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession. On the macroeconomic side, the Great Moderation encouraged an overly optimistic assessment of risk. Combined with low interest rates, reflecting both loose monetary policy and relatively high Asian savings rates, that encouraged a build-up of excessive leverage in the banking system. On the microeconomic side, distorted incentives led to a concentration and mispricing of risk. Informational complexities associated with new financial assets and the interconnectedness of financial institutions then resulted in the closure of funding markets and a flight to safety when loan defaults rose unexpectedly. The episode indicates the need to focus on agency and information problems between banks and their funders in addition to those between the banks and their borrowers. It also suggests that the process of financial intermediation should play a more prominent role in macroeconomic models. (JEL: E32, E44, E52, E58, F32, G01, G21) (c) 2010 by the European Economic Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Bean, 2010. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture The Great Moderation, The Great Panic, and The Great Contraction," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 289-325, 04-05.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:8:y:2010:i:2-3:p:289-325
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bekiros, Stelios & Cardani, Roberta & Paccagnini, Alessia & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Dealing with financial instability under a DSGE modeling approach with banking intermediation: A predictability analysis versus TVP-VARs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 216-227.
    2. repec:mes:ijpoec:v:43:y:2014:i:3:p:70-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2013. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the Great Moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-32.
    4. repec:eme:isetez:s1571-038620150000024025 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gómez Loscos, Ana & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2014. "The Two Greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 10092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Floros, Christos, 2015. "Dynamic Connectedness of UK Regional Property Prices," MPRA Paper 68421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Fiscal Policy And Lending Relationships," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 696-712, April.
    9. Mohammed Dore & Roelof Makken & Erik Eastman, 2013. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Non-residential Fixed Investment and Housing," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 215-224, September.
    10. Arne Heise, 2014. "The Future of Economics in a Lakatos–Bourdieu Framework," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 70-93, July.
    11. Marchiori, Luca & Maystadt, Jean-François & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 355-374.
    12. Donato Masciandaro, 2014. "Macroeconomic Ideas, Business Cycles and Economic Policies: One Size Doesn’t Fit All - A Primer," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 14161, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Li, Boyao, 2017. "The impact of the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio on macroeconomic stability: An agent-based approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    14. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tiziana Assenza & Michele Berardi & Domenico Delli Gatti, 2015. "Was Bernanke Right? Targeting Asset Prices May : not: be a Good Idea After All," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics,in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 451-496 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    16. Daniele, Vittorio, 2015. "Una stagnazione secolare? Italia, Giappone, Stati Uniti, 1950-2015
      [Towards a secular stagnation? Italy, Japan, United States, 1950-2015]
      ," MPRA Paper 69997, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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