Interest Rate Conundrum
In June of 2004 the Fed began relentlessly tightening policy. They raised the Federal Funds Target (Target) from 1% to 5 1/4% in 1/4% increments at seventeen consecutive meetings. While short rates dutifully followed the Target up, long maturity rates actually fell. Alan Greenspan in 2005 Congressional testimony labeled the strange behavior of the spread between long rates and the Target a "conundrum." This paper examines the conundrum. We present robust empirical evidence that the increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds explains at least half of the decline in long maturity rates. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury debt with a maturity over one year grew from 20% in 1994 to 57% in 2007.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004.
"Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets,"
99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989.
"New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators,"
178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:9:y:2009:i:1:n:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.