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The contribution of us bond demand to the us bond yield conundrum of 2004 to 2007: an empirical investigation

Author

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  • Thomas Goda

    ()

  • Photis Lysandrou

    ()

  • Chris Stewart

    ()

Abstract

Although the federal funds rate started rising from mid-2004 US long term rates continued to fall. A likely contributory factor to this conundrum was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL-based models, which accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of demand on US bond yields in the conundrum period. This impact is shown to have been everywhere significantly negative. The fact that our model fully explains the bond yield conundrum gives support to the hypothesis that the US CDO market was rapidly expanded before 2007 chiefly to absorb the overspill of global demand for safe assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou & Chris Stewart, 2011. "The contribution of us bond demand to the us bond yield conundrum of 2004 to 2007: an empirical investigation," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010719, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:010719
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    File URL: http://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstream/10784/741/1/2011_13_Thomas_Goda.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. De Loubens, A. & Idier, J. & Jardet, C., 2007. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro area: A multivariate approach," Working papers 170, Banque de France.
    4. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    6. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    7. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2010. "The Bond Yield Conundrum : Alternative Hypotheses and the State of the Economy," Discussion Paper 2010-121, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "The "Other" Imbalance and the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lysandrou, Photis & Shabani, Mimoza, 2017. "The Greenspan conundrum of 2005-7 and the acceleration in US ABCP supply: a single ‘reach for yield’ story," MPRA Paper 79917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou, 2014. "The contribution of wealth concentration to the subprime crisis: a quantitative estimation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 301-327.
    3. Photis Lysandrou & Anastasia Nesvetailova, 2015. "The role of shadow banking entities in the financial crisis: a disaggregated view," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 257-279, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; bond yields; bond yield conundrum; bond demand; subprime crisis ; structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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