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Determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro area: A multivariate approach

Author

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  • De Loubens, A.
  • Idier, J.
  • Jardet, C.

Abstract

This article looks at the factors explaining the level of US and European long-term interest rates between 1986 and 2005. We begin by selecting the structural determinants of long-term interest rates, dealing with the US and European cases separately. However, a univariate framework cannot capture market integration and suffers from a number of statistical limitations. Switching to a multivariate setting reveals spillover from US to euro area long-term yields, with no reciprocal effect. The model allows us to draw up a timeline of events affecting the level of US and European long-term interest rates. Accordingly, the bursting of the internet bubble, purchases by foreign agents, both official and private, and the increase in global liquidity all seemingly exerted downward pressure on US long-term interest rates and, indirectly, on euro area long rates.

Suggested Citation

  • De Loubens, A. & Idier, J. & Jardet, C., 2007. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro area: A multivariate approach," Working papers 170, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:170
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    2. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    3. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    5. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
    2. Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou, 2014. "The contribution of wealth concentration to the subprime crisis: a quantitative estimation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 301-327.
    3. Thomas Goda & Photis Lysandrou & Chris Stewart, 2011. "The contribution of us bond demand to the us bond yield conundrum of 2004 to 2007: an empirical investigation," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010719, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    4. Timothy P. Sharpe, 2013. "A Modern Money Perspective on Financial Crowding-out," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 586-606, October.
    5. Hasan Cömert, 2012. "Decoupling between the Federal Funds Rate and Long-term Interest Rates: Decreasing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the U.S," Working Papers wp295, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long term interest rates ; Conundrum; Multivariate model.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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