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Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    ()

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    ()

We use a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to extract world, regional and country factors of real interest rate series for 22 OECD economies. We find that the world factor plays a privileged role in explaining the variance of real rates for most countries in the sample, and accounts for the steady decrease in interest rates in the last decades. Moreover, the relative contribution of the world factor is rising over time. We also find relevant differences between the group of countries that follow fixed exchange rate strategies and those with flexible regimes.

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File URL: http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2007-06.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2007-06.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2007-06
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  19. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0411, European Central Bank.
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  24. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," CEPR Discussion Papers 5522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
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  28. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
  29. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
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