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Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?

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  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    ()

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

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Abstract

We use a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to extract world, regional and country factors of real interest rate series for 22 OECD economies. We find that the world factor plays a privileged role in explaining the variance of real rates for most countries in the sample, and accounts for the steady decrease in interest rates in the last decades. Moreover, the relative contribution of the world factor is rising over time. We also find relevant differences between the group of countries that follow fixed exchange rate strategies and those with flexible regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2007-06
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    File URL: https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2007-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
      by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 17:59:58

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    2. Natalie Labuschagne & Polly Vowles, 2010. "Why are Real Interest Rates in New Zealand so High? Evidence and Drivers," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.
    4. Groth, Charlotta & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 30, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real interest rates; natural rate of interest; Bayesian dynamic factor models.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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