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Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina
  • Jacek Kotlowski

    () (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper uses a restricted factor model to estimate the HICP index excluding relative prices changes. The index thus obtained, hereinafter referred to as pure inflation, demonstrates stronger relationship to the central bank instrument (short-term interest rate) than the HICP index and selected measures of core inflation. Pure inflation has also a forecasting performance for future HICP comparable or better than that of competing models. The estimated variable indicates a much weaker role of changes in relative prices in the recent period of rising inflation (2006-2008) than during previous inflation increases (1999-2000 and 2004-05). This may show that inflation was mainly driven by demand pressures in the years 2006-2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:37
    as

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    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/IE/struktura/ZES/Documents/Working_Papers/aewp03-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
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    5. Jacek Kotlowski, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with dynamic factor model – the case of Poland," Working Papers 24, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    6. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
      by Metablog Obserwatora Finansowego in Obserwator Finansowy on 2009-12-10 17:59:58

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    2. Pierzak, Agnieszka, 2013. "Forecasting inflation in Poland using dynamic factor model," MF Working Papers 17, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 01 Aug 2013.
    3. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodr�guez, 2012. "A factorial decomposition of inflation in Peru: an alternative measure of core inflation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1331-1334, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; relative prices; factor model; core inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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