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Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    ()

    (National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Vienna, Bruennerstrasse 72, A-1210 Vienna (Austria))

We use a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to extract world, regional and country factors of real interest rate series for 22 OECD economies. We find that the world factor plays a privileged role in explaining the variance of real rates for most countries in the sample, and accounts for the steady decrease in interest rates in the last decades. Moreover, the relative contribution of the world factor is rising over time. We also find relevant differences between the group of countries that follow fixed exchange rate strategies and those with flexible regimes.

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Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 139.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 29 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:139
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