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Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej

Author

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  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał
  • Kotłowski, Jacek

Abstract

The authors use a restricted factor model to estimate the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) excluding relative price changes. The index obtained in this way, referred to as pure inflation, demonstrates a stronger relationship to the central bank’s short-term interest rate than the HICP index and selected measures of core inflation. Pure inflation also has a forecasting effect on the future HICP, comparable or better than that of competing models. The estimated variable shows that changes in relative prices played a much smaller role in the recent period of rising inflation (2006-2008) than during previous inflation increases (1999-2000 and 2004-2005). This shows that inflation was mainly driven by demand pressures in 2006-2008, the authors conclude.

Suggested Citation

  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kotłowski, Jacek, . "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2009(9).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356696
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Jêdrzejczyk, 2012. "Inflation forecasting using dynamic factor analysis. SAS 4GL programming approach," Working Papers 63, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.

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