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The interest rate effects of government debt maturity

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  • Jagjit S Chadha
  • Philip Turner
  • Fabrizio Zampolli

Abstract

Federal Reserve purchases of bonds in recent years have meant that a smaller proportion of long-dated government debt has had to be held by other investors (private sector and foreign official institutions). But the US Treasury has been lengthening the maturity of its issuance at the same time. This paper reports estimates of the impact of these policies on long-term rates using an empirical model that builds on Laubach (2009). Lowering the average maturity of US Treasury debt held outside the Federal Reserve by one year is estimated to reduce the five-year forward 10-year yield by between 130 and 150 basis points. Such estimates assume that the decisions of debt managers are largely exogenous to cyclical interest rate developments; but they could be biased upwards if the issuance policies of debt managers are not exogenous but instead respond to interest rates. Central banks will face uncertainty not only about the true magnitude of maturity effects, but also about the size and concentration of interest rate risk exposures in the financial system. Nor do they know what the fiscal authorities and their debt managers will do as long-term rates change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:415
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    Cited by:

    1. Jagjit S. Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The ties that bind: monetary policy and government debt management," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 548-581, AUTUMN.
    2. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Sushanta K Mallick & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2017. "Market volatility, monetary policy and the term premium," BIS Working Papers 606, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. repec:bla:econom:v:84:y:2017:i:335:p:541-558 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    6. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Beetsma, Roel & Westerhout, Ed, 2016. "A comparison of nominal and indexed debt under fiscal constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Philip Turner, 2014. "The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?," BIS Working Papers 448, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2018:i:q1-18:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:109-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. António Afonso, & Manish K. Singh, 2016. "Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/11, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2014. "A shadow policy rate to calibrate US monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 452, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    16. Francis Breedon & Philip Turner, 2016. "On the transactions costs ofquantitative easing," BIS Working Papers 571, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Ieva Sakalauskaite & Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2013. "Long-Term Interest Rates and Public Debt Maturity," CESifo Working Paper Series 4408, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative easing; sovereign debt management; long-term interest rate; portfolio balance effect;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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