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An International Examination of Affine Term Structure Models and the Expectations Hypothesis

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  • Tang, Huarong
  • Xia, Yihong

Abstract

We examine the yield curve behavior and the relative performance of affine term structure models (ATSMs) using government bond yield data from Canada, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. We find strong predictability of forward rates for excess bond returns and reject the expectations hypothesis in all five countries. A three-factor model is sufficient to capture movements in the yield curve of Canada, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S., but may not be enough for Germany. An exhaustive comparison among ATSMs with no more than three factors reveals that the three-factor essential affine model (A1(3)E), with only one factor affecting the volatility of the short rate but with all three factors affecting the price of risk, performs best in all five countries. Simulations provide inconclusive evidence on whether this best affine model can successfully generate the rich yield curve behavior observed in the data.

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  • Tang, Huarong & Xia, Yihong, 2007. "An International Examination of Affine Term Structure Models and the Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 41-80, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:42:y:2007:i:01:p:41-80_00
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    1. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
    2. Pegoraro, F. & Siegel, A. F. & Tiozzo Pezzoli, L., 2014. "Specification Analysis of International Treasury Yield Curve Factors," Working papers 490, Banque de France.
    3. Januj Juneja, 2015. "An evaluation of alternative methods used in the estimation of Gaussian term structure models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Jacobs, Kris & Karoui, Lotfi, 2009. "Conditional volatility in affine term-structure models: Evidence from Treasury and swap markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 288-318, March.
    5. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    6. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
    7. Meres, Bernardo & Almeida, Caio, 2008. "Extracting Default Probabilities from Sovereign Bonds," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(1), May.
    8. Juneja, Januj, 2017. "Invariance, observational equivalence, and identification: Some implications for the empirical performance of affine term structure models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 292-305.
    9. Manfred Frühwirth & Paul Schneider & Leopold Sögner, 2010. "The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(4), pages 658-685, September.
    10. Realdon, Marco, 2009. ""Extended Black" term structure models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 232-238, December.
    11. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    12. Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
    13. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    14. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Individual investors and suboptimal early exercises in the fixed-income market," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 14, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    16. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2018. "What makes individual investors exercise early? Empirical evidence from non-tradable fixed-income products," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 318-334.
    17. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.
    18. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.

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