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Information in the yield curve: A Macro-Finance approach

Listed author(s):
  • Hans Dewachter

    ()

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department
    Center for Economic Studies, University of Leuven
    CESifo)

  • Leonardo Iania

    ()

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department
    Louvain School of Management (UCL))

  • Marco Lyrio

    ()

    (Insper Institute of Education and Research)

We use a macro-finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the U.S. bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques, we find that a single factor explains most of the variation in bond risk premiums. Furthermore, the model-implied risk premiums account for up to 40% of the variability of one- and two-year excess returns. Using the model to decompose yield spreads into an expectations and a term premium component, we find that, although this decomposition does not seem important to forecast economic activity, it is crucial to forecast inflation for most forecasting horizons.

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File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp254en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 254.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201403-254
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  1. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2008. "Learning, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 191-245 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2012. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(06), pages 1893-1916, February.
  3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 136-151, January.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, 02.
  5. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
  6. Dewachter, Hans & Lyrio, Marco, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 119-140, February.
  7. Favero, Carlo A. & Kaminska, Iryna & Söderström, Ulf, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 241-270.
  10. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, Diciembre.
  11. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
  12. Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35.
  13. Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "What we do and don't know about the term premium," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul20.
  14. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
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