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Monetary Policy, Bond Risk Premia, and the Economy

  • Peter N. Ireland

    ()

    (Boston College)

This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by observable and unobservable macroeconomic factors. It imposes restrictions to identify the effects of monetary policy and other structural disturbances on output, inflation, and interest rates and to decompose movements in long-term rates into terms attributable to changing expected future short rates versus risk premia. The estimated model highlights a broad range of channels through which monetary policy affects risk premia and the economy, risk premia affect monetary policy and the economy, and the economy affects monetary policy and risk premia.

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Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 852.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:852
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  1. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 14260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-037-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  5. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
  7. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
  8. Taeyoung Doh, 2007. "What does the yield curve tell us about the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target?," Research Working Paper RWP 07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-43, January.
  10. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, 05.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Peter Spencer, 2007. "Stochastic Volatility in a Macro-Finance Model of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961-2004," Discussion Papers 07/32, Department of Economics, University of York.
  13. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  15. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  17. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  18. Favero, Carlo A. & Kaminska, Iryna & Söderström, Ulf, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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