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Stochastic Volatility in a Macro-Finance Model of the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961-2004

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  • PETER D. SPENCER

Abstract

This paper generalizes the standard homoscedastic macro-finance model by allowing for stochastic volatility, using the "square root" specification of the mainstream finance literature. Empirically, this specification dominates the standard model because it is consistent with the square root volatility found in macroeconomic time series. Thus it establishes an important connection between the stochastic volatility of the mainstream finance model and macro-economic volatility of the Okun-Friedman type. This research opens the way to a richer specification of both macro-economic and term structure models, incorporating the best features of both macro-finance and mainstream finance models. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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  • Peter D. Spencer, 2008. "Stochastic Volatility in a Macro-Finance Model of the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates 1961-2004," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1177-1215, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:6:p:1177-1215
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    3. Spencer, Peter & Liu, Zhuoshi, 2010. "An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 667-680, March.

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