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Monetary Policy, Bond Risk Premia, and the Economy

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  • Peter N. Ireland

Abstract

This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by observable and unobservable macroeconomic factors. It imposes restrictions to identify the effects of monetary policy and other structural disturbances on output, inflation, and interest rates and to decompose movements in long-term rates into terms attributable to changing expected future short rates versus risk premia. The estimated model highlights a broad range of channels through which monetary policy affects risk premia and the economy, risk premia affect monetary policy and the economy, and the economy affects monetary policy and risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Bond Risk Premia, and the Economy," NBER Working Papers 21576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21576
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gomez-Rodriguez & Christian Matthes, 2023. "The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-008 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
    3. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A re-evaluation of the term spread as a leading indicator," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 476-492.
    4. Kim, Insu & Yie, Myung-Soo, 2016. "Trend inflation, firms' backward-looking behavior, and inflation gap persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 116-125.
    5. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    6. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    7. Abraham Lioui & Andrea Tarelli, 2023. "Money Illusion and TIPS Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 171-214, February.
    8. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Wu, Shui Tang, 2020. "Predictability in sovereign bond returns using technical trading rules: Do developed and emerging markets differ?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Lioui, Abraham & Tarelli, Andrea, 2019. "Macroeconomic environment, money demand and portfolio choice," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 357-374.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
    11. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
    12. Ethan Struby, 2018. "Macroeconomic Disagreement in Treasury Yields," Working Papers 2018-04, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    13. Kim, Insu & Kim, Young Se, 2019. "Inattentive agents and inflation forecast error dynamics: A Bayesian DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Ge, Futing & Zhang, Weiguo, 2022. "The determinants of cross-border bond risk premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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