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Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia

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  • MARCELLO PERICOLI
  • MARCO TABOGA

Abstract

We derive a canonical representation for the no-arbitrage discrete-time term structure models with both observable and unobservable state variables, popularized by Ang and Piazzesi (2003). We conduct a specification analysis based on this canonical representation and we analyze how alternative parameterizations affect estimated risk premia, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions. We find a trade-off between the need to obtain parsimonious parameterizations and the ability of the models to match observed patterns of variation in risk premia. We also find that more richly parameterized models uncover a greater influence of macroeconomic fundamentals on the long-end of the yield curve. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:7:p:1471-1488
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    Cited by:

    1. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    3. Marco S. Matsumura, 2015. "Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities," Discussion Papers 0173, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    4. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    7. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
    8. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    9. Marco S. Matsumura, 2006. "Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities," Discussion Papers 1241, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    11. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Haoxi Yang, 2016. "Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 732-776, November.
    12. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
    13. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2013. "Macroprudential, Microprudential and Monetary Policies: Policies, Complementarities and Trade-Offs," Chapters, in: Andreas Dombret & Otto Lucius (ed.), Stability of the Financial System, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Marco Taboga, 2009. "Macro‐finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
    15. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 109-145, June.
    16. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    18. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
    19. repec:wyi:journl:002125 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Marcello Pericoli, 2013. "Macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises and the term structure of interest rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 927, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Zbynek Stork, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach," EcoMod2016 9566, EcoMod.
    22. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
    23. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, Jose Valentim Machado, 2011. "Identification of Gaussian Term Structure Models with Observable Factors," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(2), December.
    24. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.

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    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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