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International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models

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Abstract

I estimate a Gaussian two-factor affine term structure model of bond yields for three countries, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. I find a considerable time-varying component of excess returns in the data. They are positively correlated with the slope of the term structure and negatively with the short-term policy rate. In addition, the panel clearly indicates to co-movements in the same directions on an international level. When testing the estimated model for the expectations puzzle of the the term structure, at least at one end of the yield curve, this puzzle can be resolved when applying risk-adjusted yield changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:316
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure of Interest Rates; Term Premia; Kalman Filter; Maximum Likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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