Macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises and the term structure of interest rates
The no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model is used to analyse the impact of macroeconomic surprises on the nominal and the real term structure in the euro area and in the United States. We find that nominal rates are affected by surprises in economic growth, the labour market and the economic outlook in the United States, and above all by surprises in inflation in the euro area. As far as real rates are concerned, we find that they are not affected by macroeconomic surprises in the United States, but they are by surprises in inflation and monetary policy in the euro area. Inflation expectations in both areas are not systematically influenced by monetary policy surprises. In the United States forward inflation risk premia became sizeable around the start of the financial crisis at the end of the last decade and increased considerably just before the adoption of the first unconventional monetary policy measures in March 2009. By contrast, in the euro area forward inflation risk premia remained unchanged even after the adoption of the unconventional monetary policy measures in October 2008 and May 2010. In both areas long-term inflation expectations have been well anchored over the past years.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2008. "Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates," Working Paper 0810, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Philippe Mueller & Mikhail Chernov, 2008.
"The Term Structure of Inflation Expectations,"
2008 Meeting Papers
346, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003.
"A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy,"
Working Paper Series
2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, 07.
- Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Joyce, Michael & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2009.
"Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves,"
Bank of England working papers
360, Bank of England.
- Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
- Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1983.
"Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements,"
NBER Working Papers
1181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roley, V Vance & Walsh, Carl E, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1011-39, Supp..
- Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-24, November.
- Piazzesi, Monika, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve With Macroeconomic Jump Effects," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5946p7hn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
- Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1987. "The Reaction of Interest Rates to Unanticipated Federal Reserve Actions and Statements: Implications for the Money Announcement Controversy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 511-34, July.
- Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
- Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001.
"A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables,"
NBER Working Papers
8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004.
"Equal size, equal role? interest rate interdependence between the euro area and the United States,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
800, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the Euro area and the United States," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/46, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008.
"Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
- Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Urich, Thomas & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1063-72, December.
- Joseph Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2012.
"Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1588-1629.
- Joseph G. Haubrich & George Pennacchi & Peter Ritchken, 2011. "Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: evidence from inflation swaps," Working Paper 1107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_927_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.