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Nominal Interest Rates and the News

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  • MICHAEL D. BAUER

Abstract

This paper provides new estimates of the impact of monetary policy actions and macroeconomic news on the term structure of nominal interest rates. The key novelty is to parsimoniously capture the impact of news on all interest rates using a simple no‐arbitrage model. The different types of news are analyzed in a common framework by recognizing their heterogeneity, which allows for a systematic comparison of their effects. This approach leads to novel empirical findings. First, monetary policy causes a substantial amount of volatility in both short‐term and long‐term interest rates. Second, macroeconomic data surprises have small and mostly insignificant effects on the long end of the term structure. Third, the term‐structure response to macroeconomic news is consistent with considerable interest‐rate smoothing by the Federal Reserve. Fourth, monetary policy surprises are multidimensional while macroeconomic surprises are one‐dimensional.

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  • Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Nominal Interest Rates and the News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 295-332, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:2-3:p:295-332
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12177
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    2. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Bingxin Ann Xing & Bruno Feunou & Morvan Nongni-Donfack & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024. "U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 24-12, Bank of Canada.
    5. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 003, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    7. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    9. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    10. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    11. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    12. Zhang, Ji, 2016. "Macroeconomic news and the real interest rates at the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-185.

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