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Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert, Thomas

    (Foster School of Business)

  • Scotti, Chiara

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Strasser, Georg

    (Boston College)

  • Vega, Clara

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

Abstract

The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements. We explain this variation with a novel measure of the intrinsic value of an announcement - the announcement's ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation, and the Federal Funds Target Rate-and decompose it into the announcement's relation to fundamentals, a timeliness premium, and a revision premium. We find that differences in intrinsic value can explain a significant fraction of the variation in the announcements' price impact on Treasury bond yields. The announcements' timeliness and relation to fundamentals are the most important characteristics in explaining this variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Thomas & Scotti, Chiara & Strasser, Georg & Vega, Clara, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 08 Dec 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-46
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2015.046r1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Jonathan Talmi, 2016. "Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility," Staff Working Papers 16-37, Bank of Canada.
    3. repec:ecb:ecbrbu:2017:0037:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saiki, Ayako, 2016. "Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month's CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?," Working Paper Series 16-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:591-604 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Scotti, Chiara, 2016. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Radu LUPU, 2016. "The Effects Of Labor Market News On International Financial Markets," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 11(2), pages 207-215, June.
    9. McCracken, Michael W. & Owyang, Michael T. & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Large, Mixed Frequency, Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2015-30, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Alexander Kurov & Alessio Sancetta & Georg H. Strasser & Marketa Halova Wolfe, 2015. "Price Drift before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 881, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Jul 2015.
    11. repec:eee:jimfin:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:232-254 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:3:p:405-429 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic announcements; Price discovery; Learning; Forecasting; Now-casting;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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