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Is the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic news announcement related to its asset price impact?

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  • Gilbert, Thomas
  • Scotti, Chiara
  • Strasser, Georg
  • Vega, Clara

Abstract

The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements. We relate this heterogeneity to a novel measure of the intrinsic value of an announcement—the announcement’s ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation, and the federal funds target rate—and find that differences across the intrinsic values of several U.S. macroeconomic announcements explain a significant fraction of the variation in the impact each of these announcements has on U.S. Treasury yields. We also decompose the intrinsic value into the announcement’s relation to fundamentals, a timeliness premium, and a revision premium, and find that the former two characteristics are the most important ones in explaining the heterogeneous response.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert, Thomas & Scotti, Chiara & Strasser, Georg & Vega, Clara, 2017. "Is the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic news announcement related to its asset price impact?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 78-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:78-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.008
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    2. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2020. "Information versus imitation in a real-time agent-based model of financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 613-631, July.
    3. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    4. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Macroeconomic Surprises and the Demand for Information about Monetary Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202007, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.
    7. Hirshleifer, David & Sheng, Jinfei, 2016. "Macro News and Micro News: Complements or Substitutes?," MPRA Paper 108224, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jun 2021.
    8. Benjamin Born & Jonas Dovern & Zeno Enders, 2020. "Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News," CESifo Working Paper Series 8801, CESifo.
    9. Park , Cyn-Young & Tian , Shu & Zhao , Bo, 2020. "Global Bitcoin Markets and Local Regulations," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 605, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Ibrahim Bello Abdullahi, 2020. "Effect of Unstable Macroeconomic Indicators on Banking Sector Stock Price Behaviour in Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 1-5.
    11. Mukherjee, Abhiroop & Panayotov, George & Shon, Janghoon, 2021. "Eye in the sky: Private satellites and government macro data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 234-254.
    12. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2021. "The high frequency impact of economic policy narratives on stock market uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic announcements; Price discovery; Learning; Forecasting; Nowcasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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