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Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting

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  • Alberto Caruso

Abstract

Market operators monitor a massive flow of macroeconomic information every day, and react to the nexpected component of the releases. Can we replicate in an automatic way market’s pricing of macroeconomic news? In this paper I show that a "Nowcasting Surprise Index", constructed aggregating forecast errors from a nowcasting model using model-based weights, resembles surprise indexes proposed in the recent literature or constructed by practitioners, which cumulate survey-based forecast errors weighting them using the average news effects on asset prices. This suggests that market operators and a nowcasting model filter the macroeconomic data flow in a similar way, and confirms the link between asset prices and news about macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, the paper shows that a nonnegligible part of asset prices behaviour can be associated to the recent cumulated news in macroeconomic data which carry information about the underlying state of the economy. These results also open a new route for algorithmic trading based on macroeconomic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Caruso, 2018. "Macroeconomic News and Market Reaction: Surprise Indexes meet Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES 2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/268597
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
    3. Linda S. Goldberg & Christian Grisse, 2013. "Time Variation in Asset Price Responses to Macro Announcements," NBER Working Papers 19523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    6. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September.
    7. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    8. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
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