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The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

Author

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  • Alberto Caruso

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of macroeconomic "news" (market now-cast errors related to the flow of data releases on macroeconomic fundamentals) on the daily USD/EUR exchange rate. I consider a large number of real-time macroeconomic announcements from both the US and the euro-zone, and the related market expectations as reported by Bloomberg. For the euro-zone I also study country level announcements for the four biggest economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). The results for the whole sample (1999-2012) show that both the "news" associated with euro-zone releases and those associated with US ones have a significant impact on the USD/EUR exchange rate. However, the effect of the euro-zone "news" has become larger since the 2008 crisis and it is now more sizeable than that of the US "news".

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/235612
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
    2. Linda S. Goldberg & Christian Grisse, 2013. "Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements," Working Papers 2013-11, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(5), pages 693-714, October.
    5. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    6. Cagliesi, Gabriella & Della Bina, Antonio Carlo Francesco & Tivegna, Massimo, 2014. "Market response to news: rationality and conformism in an euro-dollar exchange rate model," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 11195, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    7. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
    8. Michael Ehrmann & Chiara Osbat & Jan Strasky & Lenno Uuskula, 2013. "The Euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis � dancing to its own tune?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 24 May 2013.
    9. Ehrmann, Michael & Osbat, Chiara & Stráský, Jan & Uusküla, Lenno, 2014. "The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 319-339.
    10. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic news; exchange rate; event studies; real-time data;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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