IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fmg/fmgdps/dp258.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • Alvaro Almeida
  • Richard Payne
  • Charles Goodhart

Abstract

This paper studies the high frequency reaction of the DEM/USD exchange rate to publicly announced macroeconomic information emanating from Germany and the U.S. The new content of each announcement is extracted using a set of market expectation figures supplied by MMS International. By using data sampled at a high (5 Minute) frequency we are able to identify systematic impacts of most announcements on the exchange rate change in the 15 minutes post-announcement. The impacts of news on the exchange rate, however, can be seen to lose significance very quickly when the observation horizon for the exchange rate is increased, so that for most announcements there is little effect of news on the exchange rate change by the end of the three hours immediately after release. Both the responses to U.S. And German news are broadly consistent with a monetary authority reaction function hypothesis, i.e., the market expects the Fed or the Bundesbank to respond to news on increased real activity, for example, by raising short term interest rates in order to head off the possibility of future inflation. Further, the use of German data allows us to examine two questions the previous literature could not tackle, because, unlike U.S. announcements, German announcements are not Scheduled. First, we show that the time-patten of the reaction of the exchange rate to the U.S. scheduled announcements is different from the reaction to the German non-scheduled announcements, the former being much quicker. Second, we are able to examine the effect on the exchange rate change of the proximity of other events to the announcement. Results show that German news is most influential when released just prior to a Bundesbank council meeting Finanlly subsidiary results demonstrate the efficiency of the intra-day FX market with respect to these announcements and map the pattern of volatility these releases cause.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Almeida & Richard Payne & Charles Goodhart, 1997. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behaviour," FMG Discussion Papers dp258, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmg_pdfs/dp258.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N/A, 1987. "Calendar of Main Economic Events, 1986," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 119(1), pages 79-93, February.
    2. V A Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 1995. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targets and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions in OECD Economies"," Working Papers 9606, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 1996.
    3. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil & Song, Frank, 1995. "Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 99-119, January.
    4. anonymous, 1987. "Review of domestic and external economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 50, march.
    5. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    6. N/A, 1987. "Chaptefi III. the British Economy Since 1979," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 122(1), pages 41-46, November.
    7. Hoffman, Dennis L & Schlagenhauf, Don E, 1985. "The Impact of News and Alternative Theories of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 328-346, August.
    8. -, 1987. "Evolución de la economía brasileña, 1987," Informe Estadístico – Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia 27977, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. N/A, 1987. "Chapter I. The Home Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 119(1), pages 6-23, February.
    10. -, 1987. "Planning for a fresh social and economic dynamic," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    11. N/A, 1987. "Chapter I. The Home Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 120(1), pages 6-20, May.
    12. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 117-134, March.
    13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    14. N/A, 1987. "Chapter I. the Home Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 122(1), pages 7-23, November.
    15. Harvey, Campbell R & Huang, Roger D, 1991. "Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 543-569.
    16. Richard Payne, 1996. "Announcement Effects and Seasonality in the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp238, Financial Markets Group.
    17. N/A, 1987. "Chapter I. the Home Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 121(1), pages 6-20, August.
    18. anonymous, 1987. "New Zealand economic chronology 1986," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 50, march.
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Giampaolo Galli & Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran96-1.
    20. Hakkio, Craig S & Pearce, Douglas K, 1985. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 621-636, October.
    21. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    2. Merlo, Antonio, 1997. "Bargaining over Governments in a Stochastic Environment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 101-131, February.
    3. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M, 1997. "Wage Inequality and Family Labor Supply," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 72-97, January.
    4. Neal, Derek, 1995. "Industry-Specific Human Capital: Evidence from Displaced Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 653-677, October.
    5. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-487, June.
    6. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 551-572, June.
    7. Cramton, Peter C & Tracy, Joseph S, 1994. "The Determinants of U.S. Labor Disputes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(2), pages 180-209, April.
    8. Suthawan Prukumpai, 2015. "Time-varying Industrial Portfolio Betas under the Regime-switching Model: Evidence from the Stock Exchange of Thailand," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 22(2), pages 54-76, December.
    9. Coate, Stephen & Morris, Stephen, 1995. "On the Form of Transfers in Special Interests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1210-1235, December.
    10. Harrison, Alan & Stewart, Mark, 1994. "Is Strike Behavior Cyclical?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(4), pages 524-553, October.
    11. Sattinger, Michael, 1995. "General Equilibrium Effects of Unemployment Compensation with Labor Force Participation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 623-652, October.
    12. Baker, Michael, 1997. "Growth-Rate Heterogeneity and the Covariance Structure of Life-Cycle Earnings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 338-375, April.
    13. Mccorriston, Steve & Sheldon, Ian, 1989. "Imperfect Competition, Trade Policy and Processed Agricultural Products," Occasional Papers 232831, Regional Research Project NC-194: Organization and Performance of World Food Systems.
    14. Belzil, Christian, 1996. "Relative Efficiencies and Comparative Advantages in Job Search," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 154-173, January.
    15. Prendergast, Canice & Stole, Lars, 1996. "Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1105-1134, December.
    16. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1997. "The effects of macroeconomic 'news' on high frequency exchange rate behaviour," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119153, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Reilly, Kevin T, 1994. "Annual Hours and Weeks in a Life-Cycle Labor Supply Model: Canadian Evidence on Male Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(3), pages 460-477, July.
    18. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. M. D. Mckenzie & R. D. Brooks, 2003. "The role of information in Hong Kong individual stock futures trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-131.
    20. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Systematic Risk in the Macrocosm," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, in: Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing, chapter 0, pages 239-274, Palgrave Macmillan.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The FMG Administration (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.