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Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements

  • Linda S. Goldberg
  • Christian Grisse

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the release, and risk conditions: government bond yields increase in response to "good news", but less so when risk is elevated. Risk conditions matter since they can capture the effects of uncertainty on the information content of news announcements, the interaction of monetary policy and financial stability objectives of central banks, and the effect of news announcements on the risk premium.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2013-11.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2013-11
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  11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
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  26. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  27. Fischer, Andreas M., 1989. "Policy regime changes and monetary expectations : Testing for super exogeneity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 423-436, November.
  28. Leonardo Bartolini & Linda Goldberg & Adam Sacarny, 2008. "How economic news moves markets," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Aug).
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