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Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys

  • Kajal Lahiri
  • George Monokroussos

We study the role of the well-known monthly diffusion indices produced by the Institute or Supply Management in nowcasting current quarter US GDP growth. We investigate their marginal impact on these nowcasts when large unbalanced (jagged edge) macroeconomic data sets are used in real time to generate them. We find some evidence that these ISM indices can be helpful in improving the nowcasts in the beginning of the month when new ISM information becomes available ahead of other monthly indicators.

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File URL: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/2011/lahirimonokroussos.pdf
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Paper provided by University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-01.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:11-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736

Order Information: Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
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