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A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data

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  • Dasgupta, Susmita
  • Lahiri, Kajal

Abstract

This article examines the effectiveness of a subjective probability approach to quantify three-category qualitative responses from expectations surveys. Since one cannot make a judgment on the validity of estimated expectations by comparing them with ex post outcomes, the authors use the National Association of Purchasing Managers survey data on materials buying prices and compare them with the Producer Price Index for intermediate materials and components for manufacturing. The authors experimented with normal, logistic, and scaled-t distributions and found that the approach could explain approximately 60 percent of the variation in the monthly series. Marginal improvement in the explanatory power of the procedure was noted.when the imperceptible parameter was allowed to be asymmetric and variable over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:10:y:1992:i:4:p:391-400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-360, July.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    6. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
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