IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain Precision

  • Nikolaus Hautsch

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Dieter Hess

    (University of Cologne)

  • Christoph Müller

    (University of Cologne)

Bayesian learning provides the core concept of processing noisy information. In standard Bayesian frameworks, assessing the price impact of information requires perfect knowledge of news’ precision. In practice, however, precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning, suggesting traders infer news’ precision from magnitudes of surprises and from external sources. We show that interactions of the different precision signals may result in highly nonlinear price responses. Empirical tests based on intra-day T-bond futures price reactions to employment releases confirm the model’s predictions and show that the effects are statistically and economically significant.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.ku.dk/fru/WorkingPapers/PDF/2008/200801.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Thomas Hoffmann)


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit in its series FRU Working Papers with number 2008/01.

as
in new window

Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiefr:200801
Contact details of provider: Postal: Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K., Denmark
Phone: (+45) 35 32 30 10
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk/FRU/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2001. "The Strategy of Professional Forecasting," Discussion Papers 01-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  3. Paul R. Milgrom, 1979. "Good Nevs and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Discussion Papers 407R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, 04.
  5. Pilotte, Eugene & Manuel, Timothy, 1996. "The market's response to recurring events The case of stock splits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 111-127, May.
  6. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  7. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
  8. Alan B. Krueger & Kenneth N. Forston, 2003. "Do Markets Respond More to More Reliable Labor Market Data? A Test of Market Rationality," Working Papers 114, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02.
  10. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  11. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2004. "Bayesian Learning in Financial Markets: Testing for the Relevance of Information Precision in Price Discovery," Discussion Papers 04-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Andrea Buraschi & Alexei Jiltsov, 2006. "Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2841-2897, December.
  13. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
  14. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
  15. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
  16. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September.
  17. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  18. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
  20. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Jennifer Conrad & Bradford Cornell & Wayne R. Landsman, 2002. "When Is Bad News Really Bad News?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2507-2532, December.
  22. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
  23. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2001. "Option Prices under Bayesian Learning: Implied Volatility Dynamics and Predictive Densities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  25. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  26. David, Alexander, 1997. "Fluctuating Confidence in Stock Markets: Implications for Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 427-462, December.
  27. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
  28. Abarbanell, Jeffery S. & Lanen, William N. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1995. "Analysts' forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 31-60, July.
  29. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  30. Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Voorneveld, Mark & Weibull, Jörgen W., 2004. "Better may be worse: Some monotonicity results and paradoxes in discrete choice," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 558, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 21 Apr 2004.
  31. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
  32. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:kuiefr:200801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Hoffmann)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.