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Fearing the Fed: How wall street reads main street

Author

Listed:
  • Elenev, Vadim
  • Law, Tzuo-Hann
  • Song, Dongho
  • Yaron, Amir

Abstract

We provide strong evidence of a countercyclical sensitivity of the stock market to major macroeconomic announcements. The most notable cyclical variation takes place within expansions: sensitivity is largest early in an expansion and essentially zero late in an expansion. By exploiting the comovement pattern between stocks and bonds around announcements, we show that the stock market sensitivity is large when the cash flow component of news is least offset by news about future risk-free rates. Observed fluctuations in stock sensitivities can be attributed to shifting perceptions of monetary policy responsiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Elenev, Vadim & Law, Tzuo-Hann & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2024. "Fearing the Fed: How wall street reads main street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:153:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24000138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103790
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf & Yuan Zhang, 2025. "An Intermediation-Based Model of Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(8), pages 2386-2433.
    2. repec:osf:osfxxx:kqdar_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Xu, Nancy R. & You, Yang, 2025. "Main Street’s Pain, Wall Street’s Gain," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Pflueger, Carolin, 2025. "Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Eliezer Borenstein, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Fear, and the Stock Market," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2025.03, Bank of Israel.
    6. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Murphy, Austin & AlSalman, Zeina & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2025. "An investigation into the causes of stock market return deviations from real earnings yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Ben Knox & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Stagflationary Stock Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 11236, CESifo.
    9. Daniel J. Lewis, 2025. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1086-1103, July.
    10. Michele Modugno & Berardino Palazzo, 2025. "Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-007, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Gao, Di & Fan, Yanmei & Zhou, Jing, 2025. "Managing financial investments in supply chain networks: The roles of network power and control," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    12. Abhinava Tripathi & Charu Vadhava & Ravi Raushan Jha, 2026. "Pricing efficiency of European carbon futures market during the COVID-19 pandemic," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 22-61, February.
    13. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    14. repec:osf:osfxxx:kqdar_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    16. Kam F. Chan & Philip Gray, 2018. "Volatility jumps and macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 881-897, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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