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The FOMC Risk Shift

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  • Kroencke, Tim A.
  • Schmeling, Maik
  • Schrimpf, Andreas

Abstract

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call “risk shifts”, are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion’s share of stock price movements around FOMC announcements; (ii) that they are accompanied by significant investor fund flows, suggesting that investors react heterogeneously to monetary policy news; and (iii) that price pressure amplifies the stock market response to monetary policy news. Our results imply that central bank information effects are overshadowed by short-term dynamics stemming from investor rebalancing activities and are likely to be more difficult to identify than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Kroencke, Tim A. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC Risk Shift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 21-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:120:y:2021:i:c:p:21-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.02.003
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    5. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    8. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2022. "What moves markets?," Discussion Papers 16/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Ko Adachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Tomiyuki Kitamura, 2021. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Assessment" (1): The Effects of the Bank of Japan's ETF Purchases on Risk Premia in the Stock Markets," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    11. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Difang Huang & Yubin Li & Xinjie Wang & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2022. "Does the Federal Open Market Committee cycle affect credit risk?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 143-167, March.
    13. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    14. Maurer, Tim D. & Nitschka, Thomas, 2023. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    16. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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