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Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

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  • Ralph S. J. Koijen
  • Robert J. Richmond
  • Motohiro Yogo

Abstract

Based on an asset demand system, we develop a framework to quantify the impact of market trends and changes in regulation on asset prices, price informativeness, and the wealth distribution. Our leading applications are the transition from active to passive investment management and climate-induced shifts in asset demand. The transition from active to passive investment management had a large impact on equity prices but a small impact on price informativeness because capital did not flow from more to less informed investors on average. This finding is based on a new measure of investor-level informativeness that identifies which investors are more informed about future profitability. Climate-induced shifts in asset demand have a potentially large impact on equity prices and the wealth distribution, implying capital gains for passive investment advisors, pension funds, insurance companies, and private banking and capital losses for active investment advisors and hedge funds.

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  • Ralph S. J. Koijen & Robert J. Richmond & Motohiro Yogo, 2020. "Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?," NBER Working Papers 27402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27402
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    2. Giese, Julia & Joyce, Michael & Meaning, Jack & Worlidge, Jack, 2021. "Preferred habitat investors in the UK government bond market," Bank of England working papers 939, Bank of England.
    3. Lewis, Karen K. & Fang, Xiang & Hardy, Bryan, 2022. "Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 17338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cookson, J. Anthony & Fos, Vyacheslav & Niessner, Marina, 2021. "Does Disagreement Facilitate Informed Trading? Evidence from Activist Investors," SocArXiv q8xvc, Center for Open Science.
    5. Bahaj, Saleem & Czech, Robert & Ding, Sitong & Reis, Ricardo, 2023. "The market for inflation risk," Bank of England working papers 1028, Bank of England.
    6. Koijen, Ralph & Yogo, Motohiro, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System," CEPR Discussion Papers 14874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "The Market-Based Statistics of “Actual” Returns of Investors," MPRA Paper 116896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jack Favilukis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Out‐of‐Town Home Buyers and City Welfare," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2577-2638, October.
    9. Bali, Turan G. & Gunaydin, A. Doruk & Jansson, Thomas & Karabulut, Yigitcan, 2023. "Do the rich gamble in the stock market? Low risk anomalies and wealthy households," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    10. Todd M. Hazelkorn & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2023. "Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 301-345, February.
    11. Wagner, Alexander F. & Glossner, Simon & Matos, Pedro Pinto & Ramelli, Stefano, 2022. "Do institutional investors stabilize equity markets in crisis periods? Evidence from COVID-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 15070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Cookson, J. Anthony & izhakian, yehuda, 2022. "Trading, Ambiguity and Information in the Options Market," SocArXiv ewunv, Center for Open Science.
    14. Massimiliano Affinito & Raffaele Santioni, 2021. "When the panic broke out: COVID-19 and investment funds' portfolio rebalancing around the world," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1342, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Zefeng Chen & Zhengyang Jiang, 2022. "The Liquidity Premium of Digital Payment Vehicle," CESifo Working Paper Series 9933, CESifo.
    16. Matteo Benetton & Giovanni Compiani, 2020. "Investors’ Beliefs and Asset Prices: A Structural Model of Cryptocurrency Demand," Working Papers 2020-107, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    17. Guillaume Coqueret, 2022. "Characteristics-driven returns in equilibrium," Papers 2203.07865, arXiv.org.

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