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Federal reserve private information and the stock market

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  • Lakdawala, Aeimit
  • Schaffer, Matthew

Abstract

We study the response of stock prices to monetary policy, distinguishing effects of exogenous shocks from “Delphic” shocks that reveal the Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic forecasts. To decompose monetary policy surprises into these separate components we construct a measure of Federal Reserve private information that exploits differences in central bank and market forecasts. Contractionary policy shocks of either type lower stock prices with exogenous shocks having a larger negative effect. There is some suggestive evidence of an asymmetry; when FOMC meetings are unscheduled or when the fed funds rate reverses direction, stock prices rise in response to a contractionary Delphic shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:106:y:2019:i:c:p:34-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.05.022
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403256, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    8. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403075, HAL.
    10. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2021. "The growing impact of US monetary policy on emerging financial markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    12. Jochen Güntner, 2022. "Central bank information and private‐sector expectations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1372-1385, November.
    13. Michael Smolyansky & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2021. "Monetary policy and the corporate bond market: How important is the Fed information effect?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    15. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    16. Guzmán, Alexander & Mehrotra, Vikas & Morck, Randall & Trujillo, María-Andrea, 2020. "How institutional development news moves an emerging market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 300-319.
    17. Indriawan, Ivan & Jiao, Feng & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The FOMC announcement returns on long-term US and German bond futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    18. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Sciences Po publications 2019 – 08, Sciences Po.
    19. Deng, Chuang & Zhao, Xiuyi & Xu, Man, 2022. "Financial cycle and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    20. Aeimit Lakdawala & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy shocks in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-021, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    21. Paul Rudel & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "News Shock Spillovers: How the Euro Area Responds to Expected Fed Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201832, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; Stock prices; Federal reserve private information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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