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Central Bank Information Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Marek Jarocinski

    (European Central Bank)

  • Peter Karadi

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of central bank announcements on asset prices and the macroeconomy. Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about interest rate policy and the central bank's assessment on the economic outlook. The paper disentangles the surprises caused by policy shocks and information shocks using sign restrictions on high-frequency surprises in a Bayesian VAR on US data. It relies on information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive information shock raises both. The paper finds that information shocks constitute a non-negligible share of high-frequency surprises. A representative central bank information shock is akin to a temporary demand shock that monetary policy partly offsets. It still significantly increases the price level, and eases financial conditions, but has only a weakly positive impact on output. A monetary policy tightening purged from the impact of information shocks induces a flexible price-level decline with a persistent downturn and tighter financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Lafarguette, Romain & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "Fast trading and the virtue of entropy: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Paper Series 2300, European Central Bank.
    4. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2019. "The global capital flows cycle: structural drivers and transmission channels," Working Paper Series 2280, European Central Bank.
    5. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The fundamentals of safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    7. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    8. Andrejs Zlobins, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Forward Guidance," Working Papers 2019/03, Latvijas Banka.
    9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2018. "One Money, Many Markets," Discussion Papers 1805, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Does monetary policy affect income inequality in the euro area?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 61, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    13. Simone Auer & Marco Bernardini & Martina Cecioni, 2019. "Corporate Leverage and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1258, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    16. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez, 2019. "Monetary policy surprises and employment: evidence from matched bank-firm loan data on the bank lending-channel," BIS Working Papers 799, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2018. "Effects of monetary policy decisions on professional forecasters’ expectations and expectations uncertainty," Research Discussion Papers 24/2018, Bank of Finland.
    19. Ferrando, Annalisa & Vermeulen, Philip & Durante, Elena, 2020. "Monetary policy, investment and firm heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 2390, European Central Bank.
    20. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    21. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    22. Armelius, Hanna & Bertsch, Christoph & Hull, Isaiah & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Spread the Word: International spillovers from central bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    23. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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