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Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence

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  • Andreas Neuhierl
  • Michael Weber

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Abstract

We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the slope factor. The tone of speeches by the FOMC chair correlates with the slope factor. Slope predicts changes in future interest rates and forecast revisions of professional forecasters. Our findings show that the path of future interest rates matters for asset prices, and monetary policy affects asset prices throughout the year and not only at FOMC meetings.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6199, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6199
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    Cited by:

    1. Eksi, Ozan & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-147.
    2. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ozdagli, Ali K. & Velikov, Mihail, 2016. "Show me the money: the monetary policy risk premium," Working Papers 16-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bianchi, Francesco & Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2016. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 77608, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    return predictability; policy speeches; expected returns; macro news;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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