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Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach

Author

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  • Lof, Matthijs
  • Nyberg, Henri

Abstract

We develop flexible local projections to quantify the relative contributions of expected discount rates and cash flows to the variation of dividend yields. Local projections enable the incorporation of large information sets, the use of monthly data along with annual data, and the consideration of time variation in the dividend yield decomposition. By expanding the set of state variables and allowing for time-varying parameters, our results show that the variation of expected discount rates remains the primary contributor to market volatility, whereas the contribution of expected cash flows is considerably smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0378426624000475
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107127
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dividend yield; Decomposition; Dividend growth; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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