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Cash Flow News and Stock Price Dynamics

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  • DAVIDE PETTENUZZO
  • RICCARDO SABBATUCCI
  • ALLAN TIMMERMANN

Abstract

We develop a new approach to modeling dynamics in cash flows extracted from daily firm‐level dividend announcements. We decompose daily cash flow news into a persistent component, jumps, and temporary shocks. Empirically, we find that the persistent cash flow component is a highly significant predictor of future growth in dividends and consumption. Using a log‐linearized present value model, we show that news about the persistent dividend growth component predicts stock returns consistent with asset pricing constraints implied by this model. News about the daily dividend growth process also helps explain concurrent return volatility and the probability of jumps in stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Pettenuzzo & Riccardo Sabbatucci & Allan Timmermann, 2020. "Cash Flow News and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 2221-2270, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:75:y:2020:i:4:p:2221-2270
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12901
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    1. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
    3. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Sabbatucci, Riccardo & Timmermann, Allan, 2023. "Dividend suspensions and cash flows during the Covid-19 pandemic: A dynamic econometric model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1522-1541.
    4. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Sabbatucci, Riccardo & Timmermann, Allan, 2023. "Payout suspensions during the Covid-19 pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.

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