IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v51y2020ics1062940819301366.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Swiss National Bank communication and investors’ uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Hüning, Hendrik

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of Swiss National Bank communication on stock investors’ uncertainty. Monetary policy news is identified via changes in short- and medium-term futures prices as well as by applying methods from computational linguistics and dictionary approaches to policy statements. Surprises in policy rate changes and regarding the future path of the policy rate exhibit an asymmetric effect on stock investors’ uncertainty. Moreover, by taking into account various topics addressed in the statements, I show that investors’ uncertainty decreases due to an optimistic tone in communications about economic growth. Increased uncertainty expressed in policy statements translate into increasing stock investors’ uncertainty. The results explain how news contained in monetary policy statements reduce noise in financial markets and therefore contribute to financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Hüning, Hendrik, 2020. "Swiss National Bank communication and investors’ uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:51:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819301366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.101024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940819301366
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jenny Tang, 2013. "Uncertainty and the signaling channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 15-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
    3. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    4. Picault, Matthieu & Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 136-156.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    8. Ehrmann, Michael & Talmi, Jonathan, 2020. "Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 48-62.
    9. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    10. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rossi, Enzo, 2010. "The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 486-503, April.
    11. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    13. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(577), pages 701-734, June.
    14. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    15. Burkhard, Lukas & Fischer, Andreas M., 2009. "Communicating policy options at the zero bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 742-754, September.
    16. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    17. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    18. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    19. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    20. Kurov, Alexander, 2010. "Investor sentiment and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 139-149, January.
    21. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    22. Apel Mikael & Grimaldi Marianna Blix, 2014. "How Informative Are Central Bank Minutes?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(1), pages 53-76, April.
    23. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Hüning, Hendrik, 2017. "Asset market response to monetary policy news from SNB press releases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 160-177.
    3. Hüning, Hendrik, 2016. "Asset market response to monetary policy news from SNB press releases," HWWI Research Papers 177, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Sciences Po publications 2019 – 08, Sciences Po.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Justyna Klejdysz & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2023. "Shifts in ECB Communication: A Textual Analysis of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 473-542, June.
    8. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459227, HAL.
    9. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/64veevce0i99oav223j3pkv1hf is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hayo, Bernd & Henseler, Kai & Steffen Rapp, Marc & Zahner, Johannes, 2022. "Complexity of ECB communication and financial market trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Dimitrios Kanelis & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era," CQE Working Papers 10322, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    13. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4evh7bju58uep3gd1frcn5nr9 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7mota32nad8aopst8f7d5aebpo is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Xuefan, Pan, 2023. "Analysing the response of U.S. financial market to the Federal Open Market Committee statements and minutes based on computational linguistic approaches," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 43, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    17. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    18. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    19. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 548-584, February.
    20. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    21. Möller, Rouven & Reichmann, Doron, 2021. "ECB language and stock returns – A textual analysis of ECB press conferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 590-604.
    22. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-03471878, HAL.
    23. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    24. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
    25. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Communication; Stock markets; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:51:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819301366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.