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Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter

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  • Bianchi, Francesco
  • Gómez-Cram, Roberto
  • Kind, Thilo
  • Kung, Howard

Abstract

A high-frequency approach is used to analyze the effects of President Trump’s tweets that criticize the Federal Reserve on financial markets. Identification exploits a short time window around the precise timestamp for each tweet. The average effect on the expected fed funds rate is negative and statistically significant, with the magnitude growing by horizon. The tweets also lead to an increase in stock prices and to a decrease in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. VAR evidence shows that the tweets had an important impact on actual monetary policy, the stock market, bond premia, and the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:135:y:2023:i:c:p:37-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.01.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Eickmeier, Sandra & Petersen, Luba, 2024. "Toward a holistic approach to central bank trust," Discussion Papers 27/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    4. Juan Imbet & J. Anthony Cookson & Corbin Fox & Christoph Schiller & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2024. "Social Media as a Bank Run Catalyst," Post-Print hal-04660083, HAL.
    5. Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2024. "Public attention, sentiment and the default of Silicon Valley Bank," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    6. Maxence Follot, 2024. "The impact of populism on central bank communication: Analyzing theoretical developments and the case of Hungary," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 21(1), pages 65-95, June.
    7. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut & Trienens, Lasse, 2024. "Interest Rates, Convenience Yields and Inflation Expectations: Drivers of US Dollar Exchange Rates," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302351, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2024.
    8. Cookson, J. Anthony & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William & Niessner, Marina, 2024. "The social signal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Zhang, Qisi & Frömmel, Michael & Baidoo, Edwin, 2024. "Donald Trump's tweets, political value judgment, and the Renminbi exchange rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-frequency identification; Social media; Asset prices; Fed funds rate; Central bank independence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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