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Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob Boudoukh
  • Ronen Feldman
  • Shimon Kogan
  • Matthew Richardson

Abstract

A basic tenet of financial economics is that asset prices change in response to unexpected fundamental information. Since Roll's (1988) provocative presidential address that showed little relation between stock prices and news, however, the finance literature has had limited success reversing this finding. This paper revisits this topic in a novel way. Using advancements in the area of textual analysis, we are better able to identify relevant news, both by type and by tone. Once news is correctly identified in this manner, there is considerably more evidence of a strong relationship between stock price changes and information. For example, market model R-squareds are no longer the same on news versus no news days (i.e., Roll's (1988) infamous result), but now are 16% versus 33%; variance ratios of returns on identified news versus no news days are 120% higher versus only 20% for unidentified news versus no news; and, conditional on extreme moves, stock price reversals occur on no news days, while identified news days show an opposite effect, namely a strong degree of continuation. A number of these results are strengthened further when the tone of the news is taken into account by measuring the positive/negative sentiment of the news story.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Feldman & Shimon Kogan & Matthew Richardson, 2013. "Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Kronen, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on macro variables - An SVAR-based empirical analysis for EU countries," ROME Working Papers 201711, ROME Network.
    2. Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg & Nicholas Mangee, 2015. "New Evidence for the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Why the REH Version Failed Empirically," Working Papers Series 2, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    3. Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2017. "Asset returns, news topics, and media effects," Working Papers No 5/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Adam Nowak & Amanda Ross & Christopher Yencha, 2015. "Small Business Borrowing and Peer-to-Peer Lending: Evidence from Lending Club," Working Papers 15-28, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    5. Hendershott, Terrence & Livdan, Dmitry & Schürhoff, Norman, 2015. "Are institutions informed about news?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 249-287.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Augustin, Patrick & Brenner, Menachem & Grass, Gunnar & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2016. "How do insiders trade?," CFS Working Paper Series 541, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Ahmad, Khurshid & Han, JingGuang & Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2016. "Media-expressed negative tone and firm-level stock returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-172.
    9. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2015. "Institutional Investors, Annual Reports, Textual Analysis and Stock Returns: Evidence from SEC EDGAR 10-K and 13-F Forms," MPRA Paper 65875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    11. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2015. "High Frequency Newswire Textual Sentiment: Evidence from international stock markets during the European Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 62524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Prakash Shrestha Ph.D. & Biggyan Raj Subedi, 2014. "Empirical Examination of Determinants of Stock Index in Nepal," NRB Working Paper 24/2014, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    13. Alexander Lykov & Stepan Muzychka & Kirill Vaninsky, 2016. "Investor'S Sentiment In Multi-Agent Model Of The Continuous Double Auction," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(06), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Dang, Tung Lam & Moshirian, Fariborz & Zhang, Bohui, 2015. "Commonality in news around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 82-110.
    15. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    16. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D. & Biggyan Raj Subedi, 2014. "Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 26(2), pages 25-40, October.
    17. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2015. "The Pessimism Factor: SEC EDGAR Form 10-K Textual Analysis and Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 65585, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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